Professor Sir John Curtice analyses the upcoming elections in Scotland and Wales
Women in Public Affairs Scotland and Women in Public Affairs Cymru recently hosted Professor Sir John Curtice for an online briefing call about the upcoming devolved elections.
Professor Curtis shared his analysis of what he sees as an historic realignment in British politics, describing a “remarkable calamity” in some areas for the traditional major parties ahead of May.
While the landscape in Scotland and Wales differ in many ways, they both present huge challenges for the established political. Curtice identified a massive shift away from the Labour and Conservative duopoly, fuelled by a multi-party incursion.
The decline of the leading parties
Despite the focus being devolved elections, the unprecedented fragmentation of the British state stems from Westminster activity. Keir Starmer’s popularity has “fallen off a cliff” in both nations. Curtice noted that despite health and education being devolved, voters primarily blame the UK Government for domestic failings, making it nearly impossible for Labour leaders Anas Sarwar and Eluned Morgan to escape Starmer’s shadow.
Wales was once a Labour stronghold, Welsh Labour have led every Welsh parliament since devolution – but that unbroken run could end at the 2026 elections. The party’s recent collapse in the polls, with support possibly as low as 13%, suggests it will finish no higher than third place. Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is also beating Starmer and Morgan in the polls as the more popular leader for Welsh voters.
The race is therefore between Plaid Cymru, which is stealing Labour vote share, and Reform, which is stealing Conservative vote share.
In Scotland, the SNP remains the leading force due to its geographically even vote share and benefitting from the fragmentation of the opposition vote in constituencies. This is not to say the SNP are being let off the hook with their record in government; voters have lost trust in the party to deliver, which is evident in its reduction in vote share compared to previous years.
Curtice noted how Holyrood will likely produce a “pro-independence majority” of parties, even if these parties do not achieve a full seat majority alone.
The rise of Reform
Curtice was also quick to dismiss the idea that Reform is a temporary protest, instead framing its support base as voters uncomfortable and dissatisfied with the perceived broken state of the UK.
However, support for Reform is a “niche market” deeply rooted in the 2019 Brexit campaign. Curtice said: “Do not believe the nonsense that Brexit does not matter. It really heavily structures party support.”
Reform holds 50% of support among Leave voters but less than 10% among Remainers. This, according to Curtice, is reflected in its supporters’attitudes toward immigration, scepticism of Net Zero, and a pushback against equality policies.
Across the UK, and for a general election now, Curtice estimated the party’s ceiling is approximately 30% of the electorate. Under First-Past-The-Post, this could still lead to massive seat gains.
While their popularity may not be as strong as in England, Reform has surged into second place in both Scotland and Wales, potentially securing its first-ever seats in Holyrood and the Senedd.
DeHavilland is proud to be an official supporter of WIPA Scotland and WIPA Cymru throughout 2026. DeHavilland is part of Helio, the leading political intelligence group in Europe.
