Image courtesy of number10gov via flickr under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
The “extremely liberal” mayor of “a town” was about the extent of Donald Trump’s knowledge of the Prime Minister shortly before he took office. Now that the President has met Andy Burnham in person, one can only assume he knows a little more about him.
In Trump’s defence, Burnham had maintained a relatively low international profile before becoming Labour leader and Prime Minister. His previous ministerial and shadow ministerial roles were centred around domestic policy, while as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham focused on regional priorities such as expanding public transport through the Bee Network, improving housing, and driving local economic growth.
Upon his election, it was widely assumed this inward focus would continue. His Government’s priorities have so far centred on tackling the cost of living, ongoing challenges for British businesses, and the crisis of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEETs). However, as the war in Iran has demonstrated, domestic politics is increasingly inseparable from international affairs.
Burnham’s predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, often seemed more at ease on the international stage than domestically. His careful handling of Trump, at times seeming to go to him almost cap in hand, helped safeguard British interests from more substantial tariffs. Meanwhile, staunch support for Ukraine reinforced Britain’s commitment to European and NATO security, despite questions over defence spending commitments, while a refusal to participate directly in offensive action against Iran prioritised British interests by avoiding deeper involvement in what has become an increasingly costly conflict. Nevertheless, as Christopher Featherstone of LSE highlighted,[JG1] Starmer ultimately failed to establish a coherent direction for British foreign policy, much like his domestic interventions.
With the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterms suggesting that Trump’s war in Iran dealt irreparable damage to his presidency, Starmer’s decision not to get directly involved seems all the wiser. More significantly, the midterms present an opportunity for Burnham. Where direct criticism of Trump previously risked provoking the President’s wrath, his diminished political authority could offer the Prime Minister greater freedom to take a firmer stance. Trump remains unpredictable, but Burnham may find himself dealing with a less politically formidable figure than his predecessor.
It remains difficult to gauge what sort of international leader Burnham will become. His continued commitment to Ukraine, backed by a new £10 billion package of financial and military assistance, demonstrates continuity with his predecessor. Yet Ed Miliband’s sanctions against illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and Burnham’s willingness to consider a formal apology for Britain’s historic role in the slave trade, suggest a potentially more values-driven approach. While these developments offer glimpses of his Government’s priorities, it remains to be seen whether they will amount to a coherent foreign policy overall.
The looming UK-EU summit presents an immediate opportunity for Burnham to translate his domestic priorities into diplomatic achievements. Taking place in Brussels on 20 November, it will test whether he can deliver economic pragmatism alongside these emerging principles. Reducing trade barriers could ease costs for struggling British businesses and consumers, while a youth mobility agreement could expand employment opportunities for young people.
Relations with the EU will undoubtedly present challenges, however, particularly as Britain’s future relationship with the bloc looks likely to become a dividing line at the next general election.
Another opportunity will come at December’s G20 summit in Miami, where Burnham will meet world leaders on Trump’s home turf. With the President weakened by the midterms and the international fallout from the war in Iran, Burnham could seek to position himself as a unifying figure, building consensus around shared economic challenges and potentially exerting collective pressure on Washington. It will provide an early test of whether his domestic political instincts can translate into international diplomacy.
The roles will be reversed in 2027, when Burnham hosts the G20 summit in Manchester. Once dismissed out of hand by the President, he’ll then have an opportunity to welcome global leaders to the very “town” of which he was once mayor.
While the symbolism will certainly not be lost on him, Burnham’s opportunity will extend beyond the satisfying prospect of hosting Trump on his old stomping ground. For a Prime Minister who’s built his political identity around delivering for communities at home, Manchester could provide the perfect stage to demonstrate that domestic ambitions and international leadership need not be mutually exclusive. It’s currently unclear what an international Burnham will look like and how he’ll cope under the global lens. By the end of this month, however, all should be more apparent.
If you want to hear more about the future of Burnham as an international leader, Helio will be hosting a webinar examining what could be achieved at the upcoming UK-EU summit and the implications for the UK’s future relationship with the bloc. Register here.
